Early trends of socio-economic and health indicators influencing case fatality rate of COVID-19 pandemic

<a href='https://it.freepik.com/foto-vettori-gratuito/medico'>Medico vettore creata da kjpargeter - it.freepik.com</a>
Submitted: May 18, 2020
Accepted: July 15, 2020
Published: July 22, 2020
Abstract Views: 2897
PDF: 1484
Publisher's note
All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.

Authors

Coronavirus disease 2019, i.e. COVID-19, started as an outbreak in a district of China and has engulfed the world in a matter of 3 months. It is posing a serious health and economic challenge worldwide. However, case fatality rates (CFRs) have varied amongst various countries ranging from 0 to 8.91%. We have evaluated the effect of selected socio-economic and health indicators to explain this variation in CFR. Countries reporting a minimum of 50 cases as on 14th March 2020, were selected for this analysis. Data about the socio-economic indicators of each country was accessed from the World bank database and data about the health indicators were accessed from the World Health Organisation (WHO) database. Various socioeconomic indicators and health indicators were selected for this analysis. After selecting from univariate analysis, the indicators with the maximum correlation were used to build a model using multiple variable linear regression with a forward selection of variables and using adjusted R-squared score as the metric. We found univariate regression results were significant for GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita, POD 30/70 (Probability Of Dying Between Age 30 And Exact Age 70 From Any of Cardiovascular Disease, Cancer, Diabetes or Chronic Respiratory Disease), HCI (Human Capital Index), GNI(Gross National Income) per capita, life expectancy, medical doctors per 10000 population, as these parameters negatively corelated with CFR (rho = -0.48 to -0.38 , p<0.05). Case fatality rate was regressed using ordinary least squares (OLS) against the socio-economic and health indicators. The indicators in the final model were GDP per capita, POD 30/70, HCI, life expectancy, medical doctors per 10,000, median age, current health expenditure per capita, number of confirmed cases and population in millions. The adjusted R-squared score was 0.306. Developing countries with a poor economy are especially vulnerable in terms of COVID-19 mortality and underscore the need to have a global policy to deal with this on-going pandemic. These trends largely confirm that the toll from COVID-19 will be worse in countries ill-equipped to deal with it. These analyses of epidemiological data are need of time as apart from increasing situational awareness, it guides us in taking informed interventions and helps policy-making to tackle this pandemic.

Dimensions

Altmetric

PlumX Metrics

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Citations

How to Cite

Asfahan, Shahir, Aneesa Shahul, Gopal Chawla, Naveen Dutt, Ram Niwas, and Neeraj Gupta. 2020. “Early Trends of Socio-Economic and Health Indicators Influencing Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19 Pandemic”. Monaldi Archives for Chest Disease 90 (3). https://doi.org/10.4081/monaldi.2020.1388.

Similar Articles

<< < 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 > >> 

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.